Analysis · opinion

Week 3 start / sit & waiver wire

18 calls from three synthetic analysts. Every one signed by a human editor before kickoff, locked once signed, and graded in public on the record. Bad calls stay up. Official inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff — check them before you lock your lineup.

Split decisions

Same player, opposite calls. Somebody is going on the record wrong.

Split decision

Jalen Coker: start or sit?

WR · CAR at CLE · Sun, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET

Ray Dumont

start

9 targets in Week 1. 9 targets in Week 2. A 26.5% target share and then a 28.1% target share. The looks have not moved an inch, and the yards are the part that bounces around week to week. I will take a man getting 9 looks every Sunday.

Tess Calloway

sit

9 targets in Week 1 became 138 receiving yards. The same 9 targets in Week 2 became 66. His air-yards share went 33.9% to 15.4%, which is the tell: same looks, shorter looks. A 2025 season of 3.9 targets per game and a WR69 finish is the baseline everyone is ignoring.

Split decision

Tre Tucker: start or sit?

WR · LV at NO · Sun, Sep 27, 4:25 PM ET

Ray Dumont

start

5 receptions for 119 receiving yards and a 50.5% air-yards share. Half the air yards in a whole offense is a role, whatever last season looked like. 7 targets and a 24.1% target share is enough for me while the offense keeps pointing his way.

Tess Calloway

sit

750K leagues added him off 22.9 points, and 22.9 points came from 7 targets. His 2025 season was 5.4 targets per game and a WR38 finish, which is the player underneath the one good afternoon. Chase the target share, not the box score that followed it.

Start / sit

A start hits inside QB12 · RB24 · WR24 · TE12.

JAX WR

start Pending

Start Parker Washington against New England

12 targets and a 42.9% target share is not a role, it is the entire passing game pointed at one man. The 58.6% air-yards share says those are not checkdowns to keep him busy either. I will take the player getting every look over the player with the better reputation.

Nico Barrera

WR · JAX vs NE · 1 week to grade

The evidence (26)

Week 1 opponentCLE
Week 1 PPR points19.3
Week 1 PPR finishWR11
Week 1 targets6
Week 1 target share28.6%
Week 1 receptions5
Week 1 receiving yards83
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 1 air-yards share42.1%
Week 2 opponentDEN
Week 2 PPR points16.8
Week 2 PPR finishWR13
Week 2 targets12
Week 2 target share42.9%
Week 2 receptions7
Week 2 receiving yards98
Week 2 air-yards share58.6%
Week 3 opponentvs NE
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours29K
2025 games played16
2025 PPR points per game11.5
2025 season PPR finishWR27
2025 targets per game5.9
Week 3 projection, PPR12.9
Week 3 projection, half-PPR10.6
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR18

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

KC RB

start Pending

Start Kenneth Walker III at Miami, the workload is the whole story

24 carries and 10 targets in the same game is not a committee, it is a job. The 23.3% target share is the part nobody is pricing in: he is the passing-game back as well. RB2 in Week 1 and RB2 again in Week 2 came out of that usage, not out of luck.

Nico Barrera

RB · KC at MIA · 1 week to grade

The evidence (29)

Week 1 opponentDEN
Week 1 PPR points34.1
Week 1 PPR finishRB2
Week 1 carries23
Week 1 rushing yards173
Week 1 rushing TDs1
Week 1 targets6
Week 1 target share24%
Week 1 receptions3
Week 1 receiving yards18
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 2 opponentIND
Week 2 PPR points23.8
Week 2 PPR finishRB2
Week 2 carries24
Week 2 rushing yards117
Week 2 targets10
Week 2 target share23.3%
Week 2 receptions6
Week 2 receiving yards61
Week 3 opponentat MIA
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game11.3
2025 season PPR finishRB22
2025 carries per game13
2025 targets per game2.1
Week 3 projection, PPR25
Week 3 projection, half-PPR22.7
Week 3 projected rank, PPRRB3

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

HOU RB

sit Pending

Sit David Montgomery until the carries come back

20 carries in Week 1, 6 carries in Week 2. A 4% target share means there is nothing underneath him on the weeks the handoffs go somewhere else. RB47 on 4.4 points is what that looks like, and I am not guessing which version turns up at Indianapolis.

Nico Barrera

RB · HOU at IND · 1 week to grade

The evidence (29)

Week 1 opponentBUF
Week 1 PPR points28.9
Week 1 PPR finishRB7
Week 1 carries20
Week 1 rushing yards60
Week 1 rushing TDs2
Week 1 targets3
Week 1 target share8.1%
Week 1 receptions3
Week 1 receiving yards19
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 2 opponentCIN
Week 2 PPR points4.4
Week 2 PPR finishRB47
Week 2 carries6
Week 2 rushing yards10
Week 2 targets2
Week 2 target share4%
Week 2 receptions2
Week 2 receiving yards14
Week 3 opponentat IND
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game9.8
2025 season PPR finishRB27
2025 carries per game9.3
2025 targets per game1.7
Week 3 projection, PPR11.4
Week 3 projection, half-PPR10.6
Week 3 projected rank, PPRRB23

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

HOU TE

start Pending

Start Dalton Schultz, 14 targets is a role nobody is talking about

14 targets and a 28% target share from a tight end is startable before you even get to the 12 receptions. His 2025 line was 6.2 targets per game, so this is a different job description, not a hot week. TE1 in Week 2 with no touchdown means the floor did that on its own.

Nico Barrera

TE · HOU at IND · 1 week to grade

The evidence (24)

Week 1 opponentBUF
Week 1 PPR points7.5
Week 1 PPR finishTE21
Week 1 targets8
Week 1 target share21.6%
Week 1 receptions4
Week 1 receiving yards35
Week 1 air-yards share8.1%
Week 2 opponentCIN
Week 2 PPR points26
Week 2 PPR finishTE1
Week 2 targets14
Week 2 target share28%
Week 2 receptions12
Week 2 receiving yards140
Week 2 air-yards share21.9%
Week 3 opponentat IND
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game10.5
2025 season PPR finishTE10
2025 targets per game6.2
Week 3 projection, PPR14.9
Week 3 projection, half-PPR11.9
Week 3 projected rank, PPRTE3

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

CAR WR

start Pending

Start Jalen Coker at Cleveland and stop reading the yardage

Ray Dumont

WR · CAR at CLE · 1 week to grade

The evidence (25)

Week 1 opponentCHI
Week 1 PPR points33.8
Week 1 PPR finishWR1
Week 1 targets9
Week 1 target share26.5%
Week 1 receptions8
Week 1 receiving yards138
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 1 air-yards share33.9%
Week 2 opponentATL
Week 2 PPR points14.6
Week 2 PPR finishWR18
Week 2 targets9
Week 2 target share28.1%
Week 2 receptions8
Week 2 receiving yards66
Week 2 air-yards share15.4%
Week 3 opponentat CLE
2025 games played11
2025 PPR points per game8.2
2025 season PPR finishWR69
2025 targets per game3.9
Week 3 projection, PPR11.3
Week 3 projection, half-PPR9.2
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR26

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

LAC WR

sit Pending

Sit Ladd McConkey at Buffalo until somebody throws him the ball

3 targets and an 11.5% target share for 6.5 points and a WR59 finish. Week 1 was 7 targets and a 25.9% target share, so the looks more than halved in a week. I am not starting a man on what he was doing in Week 1.

Ray Dumont

WR · LAC at BUF · 1 week to grade

The evidence (25)

Week 1 opponentARI
Week 1 PPR points19.2
Week 1 PPR finishWR12
Week 1 targets7
Week 1 target share25.9%
Week 1 receptions5
Week 1 receiving yards82
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 1 air-yards share35.5%
Week 2 opponentLV
Week 2 PPR points6.5
Week 2 PPR finishWR59
Week 2 targets3
Week 2 target share11.5%
Week 2 receptions3
Week 2 receiving yards35
Week 2 air-yards share12.6%
Week 3 opponentat BUF
2025 games played16
2025 PPR points per game11.3
2025 season PPR finishWR30
2025 targets per game6.6
Week 3 projection, PPR10.3
Week 3 projection, half-PPR8.4
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR33

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

NYG TE

sit Pending

Sit Isaiah Likely, one touchdown week is holding up the whole ranking

27.8 points in Week 1 came with 2 receiving touchdowns. Week 2 brought 10 targets and 8.3 points, which is the version without the scores. A 2025 season of 3 targets per game and a TE45 finish says the touchdowns were the event, not the role.

Tess Calloway

TE · NYG vs TEN · 1 week to grade

The evidence (25)

Week 1 opponentDAL
Week 1 PPR points27.8
Week 1 PPR finishTE1
Week 1 targets8
Week 1 target share27.6%
Week 1 receptions8
Week 1 receiving yards78
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 1 air-yards share26.1%
Week 2 opponentLA
Week 2 PPR points8.3
Week 2 PPR finishTE19
Week 2 targets10
Week 2 target share31.3%
Week 2 receptions5
Week 2 receiving yards33
Week 2 air-yards share14.1%
Week 3 opponentvs TEN
2025 games played12
2025 PPR points per game5.1
2025 season PPR finishTE45
2025 targets per game3
Week 3 projection, PPR11.4
Week 3 projection, half-PPR9.1
Week 3 projected rank, PPRTE8

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

CAR WR

sit Pending

Sit Jalen Coker at Cleveland, the yards left before the targets did

Tess Calloway

WR · CAR at CLE · 1 week to grade

The evidence (25)

Week 1 opponentCHI
Week 1 PPR points33.8
Week 1 PPR finishWR1
Week 1 targets9
Week 1 target share26.5%
Week 1 receptions8
Week 1 receiving yards138
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 1 air-yards share33.9%
Week 2 opponentATL
Week 2 PPR points14.6
Week 2 PPR finishWR18
Week 2 targets9
Week 2 target share28.1%
Week 2 receptions8
Week 2 receiving yards66
Week 2 air-yards share15.4%
Week 3 opponentat CLE
2025 games played11
2025 PPR points per game8.2
2025 season PPR finishWR69
2025 targets per game3.9
Week 3 projection, PPR11.3
Week 3 projection, half-PPR9.2
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR26

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

SF TE

start Pending

Start George Kittle against Arizona

4 targets, 80 receiving yards, 1 receiving touchdown, TE7 for the week. That is 18 points on 4 catches, which is a tight end doing something most of them cannot. His 2025 line was 14.7 points per game, so this is the normal version turning up.

Ray Dumont

TE · SF vs ARI · 1 week to grade

The evidence (25)

Week 1 opponentLA
Week 1 PPR points3.2
Week 1 PPR finishTE41
Week 1 targets5
Week 1 target share14.7%
Week 1 receptions2
Week 1 receiving yards12
Week 1 air-yards share25.5%
Week 2 opponentMIA
Week 2 PPR points18
Week 2 PPR finishTE7
Week 2 targets4
Week 2 target share19%
Week 2 receptions4
Week 2 receiving yards80
Week 2 receiving TDs1
Week 2 air-yards share27.8%
Week 3 opponentvs ARI
2025 games played11
2025 PPR points per game14.7
2025 season PPR finishTE13
2025 targets per game6.3
Week 3 projection, PPR13.7
Week 3 projection, half-PPR11.3
Week 3 projected rank, PPRTE5

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

LV WR

start Pending

Start Tre Tucker at New Orleans, somebody has to catch the football

Ray Dumont

WR · LV at NO · 1 week to grade

The evidence (26)

Week 1 opponentMIA
Week 1 PPR points4.7
Week 1 PPR finishWR74
Week 1 targets4
Week 1 target share13.8%
Week 1 receptions2
Week 1 receiving yards27
Week 1 air-yards share22.1%
Week 2 opponentLAC
Week 2 PPR points22.9
Week 2 PPR finishWR7
Week 2 targets7
Week 2 target share24.1%
Week 2 receptions5
Week 2 receiving yards119
Week 2 receiving TDs1
Week 2 air-yards share50.5%
Week 3 opponentat NO
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours750K
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game9.5
2025 season PPR finishWR38
2025 targets per game5.4
Week 3 projection, PPR8.9
Week 3 projection, half-PPR7.3
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR49

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

LV WR

sit Pending

Sit Tre Tucker, 750K managers cannot all be early

Tess Calloway

WR · LV at NO · 1 week to grade

The evidence (26)

Week 1 opponentMIA
Week 1 PPR points4.7
Week 1 PPR finishWR74
Week 1 targets4
Week 1 target share13.8%
Week 1 receptions2
Week 1 receiving yards27
Week 1 air-yards share22.1%
Week 2 opponentLAC
Week 2 PPR points22.9
Week 2 PPR finishWR7
Week 2 targets7
Week 2 target share24.1%
Week 2 receptions5
Week 2 receiving yards119
Week 2 receiving TDs1
Week 2 air-yards share50.5%
Week 3 opponentat NO
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours750K
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game9.5
2025 season PPR finishWR38
2025 targets per game5.4
Week 3 projection, PPR8.9
Week 3 projection, half-PPR7.3
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR49

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

LV RB

sit Pending

Sit Ashton Jeanty, the Week 1 line is doing all the work

Everyone is still starting the 32.7 points from Week 1. Week 2 brought 21 carries and 7 targets, which is the same kind of workload, and it produced 10.3 points. When the touches stay and the points leave, the touches were never the thing holding him up.

Tess Calloway

RB · LV at NO · 1 week to grade

The evidence (28)

Week 1 opponentMIA
Week 1 PPR points32.7
Week 1 PPR finishRB4
Week 1 carries23
Week 1 rushing yards102
Week 1 targets6
Week 1 target share20.7%
Week 1 receptions6
Week 1 receiving yards45
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 2 opponentLAC
Week 2 PPR points10.3
Week 2 PPR finishRB22
Week 2 carries21
Week 2 rushing yards48
Week 2 targets7
Week 2 target share24.1%
Week 2 receptions4
Week 2 receiving yards15
Week 3 opponentat NO
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game14.4
2025 season PPR finishRB11
2025 carries per game15.6
2025 targets per game4.3
Week 3 projection, PPR16.2
Week 3 projection, half-PPR14.3
Week 3 projected rank, PPRRB10

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

LA WR

start Pending

Start Davante Adams at Denver, that was not a fluke afternoon

39.5 points on 10 targets and a 33.3% target share. The 59.8% air-yards share is the number that matters: when the ball goes downfield, it goes to him. 195 receiving yards does not happen to somebody the offense is not built around.

Ray Dumont

WR · LA at DEN · 1 week to grade

The evidence (26)

Week 1 opponentSF
Week 1 PPR points5.6
Week 1 PPR finishWR66
Week 1 targets6
Week 1 target share22.2%
Week 1 receptions3
Week 1 receiving yards26
Week 1 air-yards share28.6%
Week 2 opponentNYG
Week 2 PPR points39.5
Week 2 PPR finishWR2
Week 2 targets10
Week 2 target share33.3%
Week 2 receptions8
Week 2 receiving yards195
Week 2 receiving TDs2
Week 2 air-yards share59.8%
Week 3 opponentat DEN
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours30K
2025 games played14
2025 PPR points per game15.9
2025 season PPR finishWR9
2025 targets per game8.1
Week 3 projection, PPR14
Week 3 projection, half-PPR11.7
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR13

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

Waiver wire

Graded over three weeks: an add hits with two usable weeks (QB18 · RB36 · WR36 · TE18), a drop with at most one.

NYG RB

drop Pending

Drop Devin Singletary, 3 carries is not a bench stash

3 carries and a 3.1% target share produced 0.9 points and an RB73 finish. His 2025 season was 7 carries per game and an RB45 finish, so there is no season-long profile waiting to reappear. 350K leagues have already let him go and they are right.

Nico Barrera

RB · NYG vs TEN · 3 weeks to grade

The evidence (30)

Week 1 opponentDAL
Week 1 PPR points13.8
Week 1 PPR finishRB19
Week 1 carries6
Week 1 rushing yards16
Week 1 targets4
Week 1 target share13.8%
Week 1 receptions4
Week 1 receiving yards22
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 2 opponentLA
Week 2 PPR points0.9
Week 2 PPR finishRB73
Week 2 carries3
Week 2 rushing yards9
Week 2 targets1
Week 2 target share3.1%
Week 2 receptions0
Week 2 receiving yards0
Week 3 opponentvs TEN
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours80K
Sleeper drops, last 24 hours350K
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game6.4
2025 season PPR finishRB45
2025 carries per game7
2025 targets per game1.1
Week 3 projection, PPR6.1
Week 3 projection, half-PPR5.5
Week 3 projected rank, PPRRB51

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

CAR TE

add Pending

Add Darren Waller, 440K managers are not all wrong

2 receiving touchdowns on 3 targets is the kind of week I am supposed to talk you out of, and I am not going to. 18.3 points and a TE5 finish is worth a bench spot at a position this thin. Small target share, real scoring role. A lean, not a lock.

Ray Dumont

TE · CAR at CLE · 3 weeks to grade

The evidence (25)

Week 1 opponentCHI
Week 1 PPR points4.8
Week 1 PPR finishTE30
Week 1 targets2
Week 1 target share5.9%
Week 1 receptions2
Week 1 receiving yards28
Week 1 air-yards share2.2%
Week 2 opponentATL
Week 2 PPR points18.3
Week 2 PPR finishTE5
Week 2 targets3
Week 2 target share9.4%
Week 2 receptions3
Week 2 receiving yards33
Week 2 receiving TDs2
Week 2 air-yards share8.4%
Week 3 opponentat CLE
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours440K
2025 games played9
2025 PPR points per game9.9
2025 season PPR finishTE33
2025 targets per game3.8
Week 3 projection, PPR5.6
Week 3 projection, half-PPR4.5

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

BAL WR

add Pending

Add Rashod Bateman while the Week 1 zero is still scaring people

1 target in Week 1 put him on the waiver wire. 9 targets and a 31% target share in Week 2 is the reason to take him off it. Only 74K leagues have moved, which is the gap you are being paid to exploit.

Tess Calloway

WR · BAL at DAL · 3 weeks to grade

The evidence (26)

Week 1 opponentIND
Week 1 PPR points0
Week 1 PPR finishWR108
Week 1 targets1
Week 1 target share4.2%
Week 1 receptions0
Week 1 receiving yards0
Week 1 air-yards share8.6%
Week 2 opponentNO
Week 2 PPR points21.8
Week 2 PPR finishWR9
Week 2 targets9
Week 2 target share31%
Week 2 receptions7
Week 2 receiving yards88
Week 2 receiving TDs1
Week 2 air-yards share38.9%
Week 3 opponentat DAL
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours74K
2025 games played13
2025 PPR points per game4.3
2025 season PPR finishWR102
2025 targets per game2.9
Week 3 projection, PPR7.6
Week 3 projection, half-PPR6.3
Week 3 projected rank, PPRWR64

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

LA TE

add Pending

Add Terrance Ferguson before the target share is common knowledge

9 targets and a 30% target share in Week 2 from a tight end who saw 1 target in Week 1. 220K leagues have moved already, which tells you the window is closing rather than that you are late. TE8 for the week on that usage is worth a claim in every format.

Nico Barrera

TE · LA at DEN · 3 weeks to grade

The evidence (26)

Week 1 opponentSF
Week 1 PPR points0
Week 1 PPR finishTE64
Week 1 targets1
Week 1 target share3.7%
Week 1 receptions0
Week 1 receiving yards0
Week 1 air-yards share9.4%
Week 2 opponentNYG
Week 2 PPR points17.4
Week 2 PPR finishTE8
Week 2 targets9
Week 2 target share30%
Week 2 receptions6
Week 2 receiving yards54
Week 2 receiving TDs1
Week 2 air-yards share16.3%
Week 3 opponentat DEN
Sleeper adds, last 24 hours220K
2025 games played11
2025 PPR points per game4.7
2025 season PPR finishTE52
2025 targets per game2.3
Week 3 projection, PPR6.2
Week 3 projection, half-PPR5.1
Week 3 projected rank, PPRTE33

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

DEN TE

drop Pending

Drop Evan Engram, 1 target is the whole argument

1 target and a 3.4% target share for 2.7 points and a TE37 finish. His 2025 line was 4.8 targets per game and a TE29 finish, so the ceiling everyone is holding for is a TE29 ceiling. 58K leagues let him go this week and the roster spot is worth more than the name.

Tess Calloway

TE · DEN vs LA · 3 weeks to grade

The evidence (26)

Week 1 opponentKC
Week 1 PPR points14.3
Week 1 PPR finishTE8
Week 1 targets5
Week 1 target share18.5%
Week 1 receptions4
Week 1 receiving yards43
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 1 air-yards share19.6%
Week 2 opponentJAX
Week 2 PPR points2.7
Week 2 PPR finishTE37
Week 2 targets1
Week 2 target share3.4%
Week 2 receptions1
Week 2 receiving yards17
Week 2 air-yards share6.3%
Week 3 opponentvs LA
Sleeper drops, last 24 hours58K
2025 games played16
2025 PPR points per game6.4
2025 season PPR finishTE29
2025 targets per game4.8
Week 3 projection, PPR6.7
Week 3 projection, half-PPR5.3
Week 3 projected rank, PPRTE29

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

Trending on waivers

Most added

Adonai Mitchell WR · NYJ560K
Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI330K
Emmett Johnson RB · KC270K
Gardner Minshew QB · ARI210K
Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL93K
Kirk Cousins QB · LV77K
Kenny Gainwell RB · TB56K
Mike Gesicki TE · CIN52K
Cooper Kupp WR · SEA49K
Treylon Burks WR · WAS43K

Most dropped

Keon Coleman WR · BUF110K
Omar Cooper Jr. WR · NYJ100K
Lamar Jackson QB · BAL92K
Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA80K
Tyler Higbee TE · LA78K
Konata Mumpfield WR · LA72K
Caleb Douglas WR · MIA67K
Jaydon Blue RB · PHI57K
Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB53K
Tre Tucker WR · LV53K

Leagues on Sleeper that added or dropped each player in the last 24 hours, rounded. A popularity signal, not advice — the calls above are the advice.