The record

Every call, graded

9–8 overall · 52.9% hit rate · 24 pending. Nothing on this page can be edited or removed, including the misses.

Leaderboard

Ray Dumont

66.7% hit rate · 8 pending

4–2

Tess Calloway

66.7% hit rate · 8 pending

4–2

Nico Barrera

20% hit rate · 8 pending

1–4

By call type

Call	Record	Hit %
start	4–4	50.0%
sit	5–4	55.6%
add	0–0	—
drop	0–0	—

Rankings accuracy

How it is graded →

Week	QB hit rate	QB rank corr.	RB hit rate	RB rank corr.	WR hit rate	WR rank corr.	TE hit rate	TE rank corr.
Week 2	41.7% 5/12	0.39	66.7% 16/24	0.64	47.2% 17/36	0.37	66.7% 8/12	0.61

Hit rate: of the players ranked inside the start line (QB12, RB24, WR36, TE12), the share who finished there, PPR. Rank corr.: Spearman correlation between our order and the actual finishes. Only players whose game had not started at signing count.

Editor's notes on signed work

Signed calls and rankings are never edited. When one is wrong, or two disagree, a dated note goes beside it — and here.

None yet.

How a call is graded

Full PPR. A player's finish is his rank among every player at his position that week, from nflverse weekly player stats. Ties share a rank. The line in force when a call is signed is frozen onto it.

Start — a hit if he plays and finishes inside the start line: QB12 · RB24 · WR24 · TE12.
Sit — a hit if he finishes outside it, or does not play.
Add — a hit if he finishes inside the usable line (QB18 · RB36 · WR36 · TE18) in at least two of the next three weeks. A bye counts as a week he was not usable.
Drop — a hit if he does that in at most one of the next three weeks.
No voids. A start call on a player who does not play is a miss.

Graded calls

KC RB

sit Miss

Sit Kenneth Walker until the touches stabilize

34.1 points on 23 carries and a 24% target share is a monster stat line, but last season he averaged 13 carries a game and finished RB22. One 23-carry outlier against Denver doesn't erase a full season of a diminished role, and I need to see the volume repeat before I trust it as a floor. Bench and watch the workload in Week 2.

Nico Barrera

RB · KC vs IND · Wk 2: RB2 · 23.8 PPR

The evidence (20)

Week 1 opponentDEN
Week 1 PPR points34.1
Week 1 PPR finishRB2
Week 1 carries23
Week 1 rushing yards173
Week 1 rushing TDs1
Week 1 targets6
Week 1 target share24%
Week 1 receptions3
Week 1 receiving yards18
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 2 opponentvs IND
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game11.3
2025 season PPR finishRB22
2025 carries per game13
2025 targets per game2.1
Week 2 projection, PPR18
Week 2 projection, half-PPR16.5
Week 2 projected rank, PPRRB7

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

LAC WR

start Miss

Start Ladd McConkey, 7 targets is a role you can trust

19.2 points on 7 targets and a 25.9% share is exactly the kind of week that should carry over, this guy is the guy in that passing game. Last season he was a WR30 on fewer targets per game than what he just posted, so the role is only growing. Plug him in and don't overthink it.

Ray Dumont

WR · LAC vs LV · Wk 2: WR59 · 6.5 PPR

The evidence (17)

Week 1 opponentARI
Week 1 PPR points19.2
Week 1 PPR finishWR12
Week 1 targets7
Week 1 target share25.9%
Week 1 receptions5
Week 1 receiving yards82
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 1 air-yards share35.5%
Week 2 opponentvs LV
2025 games played16
2025 PPR points per game11.3
2025 season PPR finishWR30
2025 targets per game6.6
Week 2 projection, PPR12.5
Week 2 projection, half-PPR10.3
Week 2 projected rank, PPRWR25

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

GB WR

sit Hit

Sit Matthew Golden despite the target count, efficiency wasn't there

12 targets sounds like a WR1 role, but a 30% share only turned into 95 yards and zero touchdowns, and last season he was a WR88. The room is buying the target count and ignoring that Green Bay's offense spread it thin without converting for him specifically. I'll let the crowd chase the volume; I want to see the points before I start him again.

Tess Calloway

WR · GB at NYJ · Wk 2: WR35 · 9.8 PPR

The evidence (16)

Week 1 opponentMIN
Week 1 PPR points15.5
Week 1 PPR finishWR17
Week 1 targets12
Week 1 target share30%
Week 1 receptions6
Week 1 receiving yards95
Week 1 air-yards share29.2%
Week 2 opponentat NYJ
2025 games played14
2025 PPR points per game5
2025 season PPR finishWR88
2025 targets per game3.1
Week 2 projection, PPR9.2
Week 2 projection, half-PPR7.6
Week 2 projected rank, PPRWR45

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

HOU WR

start Miss

Start Nico Collins, the target share is exactly what you want

10 targets on a 27% share for 75 yards and a score is the usage profile of a true WR1, and it's right in line with his 8 targets per game last season. This isn't a spike week, it's a continuation of an established role. Start him with confidence against Cincinnati.

Nico Barrera

WR · HOU vs CIN · Wk 2: did not play

The evidence (17)

Week 1 opponentBUF
Week 1 PPR points21.2
Week 1 PPR finishWR8
Week 1 targets10
Week 1 target share27%
Week 1 receptions7
Week 1 receiving yards75
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 1 air-yards share37.3%
Week 2 opponentvs CIN
2025 games played15
2025 PPR points per game15.1
2025 season PPR finishWR8
2025 targets per game8
Week 2 projection, PPR15.2
Week 2 projection, half-PPR12.6
Week 2 projected rank, PPRWR9

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

DAL WR

sit Hit

Sit George Pickens, the target share didn't show up on the field

6 targets and a 20% share turned into just 28 yards and 5.8 points, and that's the problem, the opportunity was there and the production wasn't. He was a WR5 last season averaging 17.2 points a game, so the talent's obviously real, but I need to see him actually cash in a game before I trust him again. Bench him this week and let him figure it out against someone else's roster.

Ray Dumont

WR · DAL vs WAS · Wk 2: WR34 · 10 PPR

The evidence (16)

Week 1 opponentNYG
Week 1 PPR points5.8
Week 1 PPR finishWR63
Week 1 targets6
Week 1 target share20%
Week 1 receptions3
Week 1 receiving yards28
Week 1 air-yards share33.7%
Week 2 opponentvs WAS
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game17.2
2025 season PPR finishWR5
2025 targets per game8.1
Week 2 projection, PPR17.1
Week 2 projection, half-PPR14.2
Week 2 projected rank, PPRWR5

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

CHI WR

sit Hit

Sit Kalif Raymond, the crowd is chasing one huge target share

9 targets and a 34.6% share got Kalif Raymond to WR15 for a week, but he was a WR94 across all of last season on 2 targets a game. Everybody's adding him off this line, which is exactly why I'm fading him as a start, one gaudy share against Carolina doesn't erase a season of afterthought usage. Let someone else's lineup take the risk.

Tess Calloway

WR · CHI vs MIN · Wk 2: WR37 · 9 PPR

The evidence (16)

Week 1 opponentCAR
Week 1 PPR points16.4
Week 1 PPR finishWR15
Week 1 targets9
Week 1 target share34.6%
Week 1 receptions8
Week 1 receiving yards84
Week 1 air-yards share20.4%
Week 2 opponentvs MIN
2025 games played15
2025 PPR points per game4.5
2025 season PPR finishWR94
2025 targets per game2
Week 2 projection, PPR8.6
Week 2 projection, half-PPR7
Week 2 projected rank, PPRWR51

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

KC WR

start Miss

Start Rashee Rice, the box score lies about the role

2 targets and 9.9 points looks like nothing, but last season, in limited games, he averaged 18.8 points a game as a WR40 finish, real per-game production that one quiet week against Denver doesn't erase. Everyone's spooked by the target count in isolation; I'm not fading a full season of efficient usage over a single small sample. Start him back into your lineup.

Tess Calloway

WR · KC vs IND · Wk 2: WR26 · 12.3 PPR

The evidence (17)

Week 1 opponentDEN
Week 1 PPR points9.9
Week 1 PPR finishWR36
Week 1 targets2
Week 1 target share8%
Week 1 receptions2
Week 1 receiving yards19
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 1 air-yards share4.5%
Week 2 opponentvs IND
2025 games played8
2025 PPR points per game18.8
2025 season PPR finishWR40
2025 targets per game9.8
Week 2 projection, PPR15.2
Week 2 projection, half-PPR12.6
Week 2 projected rank, PPRWR10

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

SF RB

sit Miss

Sit Christian McCaffrey, the touches just aren't the same guy yet

10 carries is a rotational workload, not a bell cow week, even with 8 targets padding the PPR floor to 13.8 points. Last season he averaged 18.3 carries a game as the RB1 overall, so this is a real dip in the bread-and-butter usage, not a fluke game script. I want the carries back before I trust the ceiling again.

Ray Dumont

RB · SF vs MIA · Wk 2: RB4 · 22.6 PPR

The evidence (18)

Week 1 opponentLA
Week 1 PPR points13.8
Week 1 PPR finishRB19
Week 1 carries10
Week 1 rushing yards68
Week 1 targets8
Week 1 target share23.5%
Week 1 receptions5
Week 1 receiving yards20
Week 2 opponentvs MIA
2025 games played17
2025 PPR points per game24.5
2025 season PPR finishRB1
2025 carries per game18.3
2025 targets per game7.6
Week 2 projection, PPR29.8
Week 2 projection, half-PPR26.3
Week 2 projected rank, PPRRB1

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

CAR WR

sit Miss

Sit Jalen Coker. Yes, the WR1.

33.8 points and a WR1 finish means everyone in your league noticed too. 9 targets is a big day, not a promise, and Week 2 is on the road at ATL. Let someone else pay for last Sunday.

Tess Calloway

WR · CAR at ATL · Wk 2: WR18 · 14.6 PPR

The evidence (10)

Week 1 opponentCHI
Week 1 PPR points33.8
Week 1 PPR finishWR1
Week 1 targets9
Week 1 target share26.5%
Week 1 receptions8
Week 1 receiving yards138
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 1 air-yards share33.9%
Week 2 opponentat ATL

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

GB WR

sit Miss

Sit Christian Watson before the bill arrives

32.7 points on 8 targets and a 20% share. That is a highlight reel, not a role. I will believe the role when the targets show up to meet the yards.

Nico Barrera

WR · GB at NYJ · Wk 2: WR21 · 14.1 PPR

The evidence (10)

Week 1 opponentMIN
Week 1 PPR points32.7
Week 1 PPR finishWR2
Week 1 targets8
Week 1 target share20%
Week 1 receptions6
Week 1 receiving yards147
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 1 air-yards share27.1%
Week 2 opponentat NYJ

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

TB RB

start Hit

Start Bucky Irving, the receiver in a running back's jersey

7 catches on 7 targets and a 25.9% share, from a back. PPR pays for exactly that job, and the 8 carries are a bonus, not the plan.

Nico Barrera

RB · TB vs CLE · Wk 2: RB15 · 13 PPR

The evidence (11)

Week 1 opponentCIN
Week 1 PPR points20.3
Week 1 PPR finishRB12
Week 1 carries8
Week 1 rushing yards45
Week 1 rushing TDs1
Week 1 targets7
Week 1 target share25.9%
Week 1 receptions7
Week 1 receiving yards48
Week 2 opponentvs CLE

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

DEN QB

sit Hit

Sit Bo Nix. The gut has seen enough.

5.4 points and a QB31 finish. JAX comes to town and I do not need a second look. Find another quarterback this week.

Ray Dumont

QB · DEN vs JAX · Wk 2: QB19 · 14.12 PPR

The evidence (9)

Week 1 opponentKC
Week 1 PPR points5.4
Week 1 PPR finishQB31
Week 1 passing yards131
Week 1 passing TDs1
Week 1 interceptions1
Week 1 carries3
Week 1 rushing yards2
Week 2 opponentvs JAX

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

GB WR

start Hit

Start Christian Watson. The big plays are the job.

147 yards and 2 scores on 6 catches. Some receivers need volume; some need one bad safety. Start him at NYJ and enjoy it.

Ray Dumont

WR · GB at NYJ · Wk 2: WR21 · 14.1 PPR

The evidence (10)

Week 1 opponentMIN
Week 1 PPR points32.7
Week 1 PPR finishWR2
Week 1 targets8
Week 1 target share20%
Week 1 receptions6
Week 1 receiving yards147
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 1 air-yards share27.1%
Week 2 opponentat NYJ

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

CAR WR

start Hit

Start Jalen Coker and do not overthink it

33.8 points, 2 touchdowns, 138 yards. When a guy hangs a WR1 week on you, you ride him until he gives you a reason not to. Ride.

Ray Dumont

WR · CAR at ATL · Wk 2: WR18 · 14.6 PPR

The evidence (10)

Week 1 opponentCHI
Week 1 PPR points33.8
Week 1 PPR finishWR1
Week 1 targets9
Week 1 target share26.5%
Week 1 receptions8
Week 1 receiving yards138
Week 1 receiving TDs2
Week 1 air-yards share33.9%
Week 2 opponentat ATL

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

IND TE

start Hit

Start Tyler Warren while his owners panic

10.3 points and a 17.2% share. At tight end the share is the whole game. Touchdown luck swings; share does not.

Tess Calloway

TE · IND at KC · Wk 2: TE10 · 14.4 PPR

The evidence (10)

Week 1 opponentBAL
Week 1 PPR points10.3
Week 1 PPR finishTE14
Week 1 targets5
Week 1 target share17.2%
Week 1 receptions3
Week 1 receiving yards13
Week 1 receiving TDs1
Week 1 air-yards share11.4%
Week 2 opponentat KC

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

PHI RB

sit Hit

Sit Saquon Barkley in PPR, and mean it

15 carries, 83 yards, and 1 catch for -3. In a league that pays for receptions, 9 points is what that shape produces. The name is not a stat.

Tess Calloway

RB · PHI at TEN · Wk 2: RB55 · 3 PPR

The evidence (10)

Week 1 opponentWAS
Week 1 PPR points9
Week 1 PPR finishRB29
Week 1 carries15
Week 1 rushing yards83
Week 1 targets2
Week 1 target share9.1%
Week 1 receptions1
Week 1 receiving yards-3
Week 2 opponentat TEN

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona

GB WR

start Miss

Start Matthew Golden at the Jets

12 targets and a 30% share is a workload, not a coincidence. The 15.5 points were what that usage looks like on a quiet day. The volume travels to New York.

Nico Barrera

WR · GB at NYJ · Wk 2: WR35 · 9.8 PPR

The evidence (9)

Week 1 opponentMIN
Week 1 PPR points15.5
Week 1 PPR finishWR17
Week 1 targets12
Week 1 target share30%
Week 1 receptions6
Week 1 receiving yards95
Week 1 air-yards share29.2%
Week 2 opponentat NYJ

Source: nflverse weekly player stats and schedule · Signed by Saul Ancona